Winning the Unwinnable: The War Room (Snake Draft Version

Writing about mock drafts is one of the more common, perhaps easy topics for most fantasy sports writers/blogs/sites. Most mock draft articles focus on the results, rather than the process, perhaps with a sprinkling of insight or strategy beyond “what do you think of my team?” or “I can’t believe Anthony Rizzo fell to the 7th round!” or whatever. I have no time or patience for this sort of article, which is why the ‘Snake Draft 401‘ and ‘Auction Strategy and Strategies‘ articles on FanGraphs+ were a pleasure to read. The $5 a year’s subscription to FanGraphs+ is one of the better fantasy sports deals, and I’d recommend the investment highly.

Regardless of your draft type (auction or snake), the snake draft 401 article specifically has a lot of good advice on creating and working with spreadsheets. There are plenty of sources to download war rooms, player raters, draft trackers, and other jawns but there’s some understated joy in the time, energy, and complete geekiness in creating your own spreadsheet to evaluate players and manage your draft.

While the draft itself is the battlefield, your war room spreadsheet will save your neck in battle. Using Google Docs, I’m putting together my own war room to test in mock drafts and auctions and ensure I’m meeting my team goals and not getting too caught up in the excitement of the next pick that I miss my overall vision for my team.

My war room is probably in Beta mode, and already has a separate sheet for each position (with rp and sp separated), a sheet of all hitters/pitchers, a sheet for all players, a sheet with draft round tiers, and a home sheet for managing in the draft. Each sheet has its own function, which I’ll outline here in the order of their utility during the draft.

A Picture of The War Room Sheet

A working version of my war room spreadsheet

A working version of my war room spreadsheet

The most important sheet is that which I’ll use to track my draft picks for each turn, and manage my actual draft. Starting from the bottom and working up, I’ll explain what I have here:

  • At the bottom is a list of rounds and picks. Following the Snake Draft 401 article, I created a simple sheet listing every pick in a snake draft in a row. Then, when I found out what pick I had, I could copy and paste that row and know which number I’d be picking for the entire draft. This makes it easier to know when you’ll need to reach for a player, or when you might be overpaying
  • On the right  is a list of the players picked with each round. Whenever I picked a player I would copy and paste their stat line from the ‘all players’ sheet.
  • Top left is the cumulative projected stats of this team. I have this set to add up all the stats from the right-hand list, so that as soon as I add in a new player their projected stats are added to my team total. This is indispensable in figuring out what categories to target with the next pick. I’m using a slightly modified version of the steamer stats found on FanGraphs, simply because Steamer uses FG playing time projections and my research has shown these to be reasonably accurate. I probably trust the ZiPs projections a little more, especially with young players or projected rookies, but especially in mixed leagues where there isn’t so much depth, I’ve found Steamer to be fairly reasonable.
  • Below this on the left are a few fields that I’ve put together based on speculation and projections.
  • Team Goal: This is my guess at what it will take to win each category, based on the winners from my leagues last year and some inflation or deflation based on other research. Above this, just below the draft projection  total, I’m calculating the percent of my projected team stats against the overall goal. I’ve targeted a balanced team focusing on 75-90% in each category, but you can see if my team performs as projected I should expect to win the Runs category and could win AVG and RBI too, meaning the weaknesses of my pitching staff will be overcome.

I have tested this against a few mock drafts, and the format makes it easy to track draft progress without clicking between too many items. In a fast moving snake draft it’s still possible to keep up with this without missing a pick or overlooking a need. The true benefit to this is in testing my team in real time against a goal, so that I can determine with pick 20 whether my team needs SB or pitching depth more, or fill other holes.

It’s easy to modify and add in an auction calculator. I’ve begun testing this and will write about that in a future update.

Winning the Unwinnable: CAIRO Mock Draft Results

R HR RBI SB avg
1015 274 1119 116 .273
W Sv SO ERA WHIP
80 123 1107 3.78 1.284541

Take a look at those numbers. How many wins do you think that’s worth in an average 12 team 5×5 roto league? I’d guess that team would place between 3rd and 5th if it can finish in the top 2 in R, HR, RBI and SO. There are obvious areas to improve but it’s not a bad place to start.

Now imagine your offense looks like this:

Brandon Belt 1B
Ben Zobrist 2B
David Wright 3B
Pablo Sandoval 3B
Pedro Alvarez 3B
Asdrubal Cabrera SS
Jed Lowrie SS
Buster Posey C
Mike Napoli C
Matt Holliday LF
Carlos Beltran RF
Josh Willingham LF
Andre Ethier RF
Adam Eaton CF

Think that team can put up the numbers you see above? I don’t. You probably don’t. CAIRO does.

As part of my ongoing Mock Draft series I am reviewing various mock draft strategies and results to see what this can teach us about planning for a draft, learning from mistakes, and judging various methods of ranking and selecting players. I’ve outlined best practices for mock drafts and established my method and guidelines for testing. Here is the first in a series of results of testing

Mock Draft I

  • Date: January 29, 2013
  • Site used: Mock Draft Central (see draft results here- teamname Bushleague Avocados)
  • Scoring/Roster: 12 team 5×5 roto; 23 team rosters (2x c, 1b, 2b, 3b, ss, 5x of, ci, mi, util; 9x p)
  • Draft position: 6th
  • Strategy/Ranking System Used: CAIRO
  • Strategy notes:  I used CAIRO v 0.3 projections, sorted by oWAR for batters and WAR by pitchers. When in doubt I picked best available for a position I had not yet filled. Note also that officially my last pick was supposed to be Joe Nathan, and ended up being Nathan Jones. This is what happens when you are hungry and search by RP named “nathan”.
  • Projected end of season rank: 12th (ouch)
  • Gut reaction, hitters: CAIRO has 8 3b and 4 catchers in their top 30 by 0WAR, compared to 1 2b (Cano) and 1 SS (Reyes). It seemed to me at least that CAIRO is optimistic on older players or undervalues younger; either way it frustrated me to have Josh Willingham as my next top player (ranked 39 by oWAR) in the 9th round when it seemed like a lot of potentially more valuable guys were ranked as worse by CAIRO.
  • Gut reaction, pitchers: CAIRO’s top 20 pitchers by WAR is a decent list ranked indecently. That it predicts Fister to be approximately as good as Kershaw is good news for Fister, who is being drafted fairly late. Matt Harrison also had an impressive projection that placed him as a top 15 pitcher.

Parting Thoughts

  • This draft was purposefully rigid in sticking with the results of the ranked CAIRO list against a very specific metric of oWAR/WAR. These are not ideal fantasy ranking systems and to arrive a better ranked list I would have put more effort into isolating the fantasy-specific projections. This list was also compiled using v0.3 of CAIRO, which is still under the works. I chose it because at the time of the draft it was the most up-to-date complete projection publicly available
  • A simple lesson from this, one that most of us probably already know: regardless of the list you are using in the draft, don’t be too rigid. Rigidity will find you overvaluing or undervaluing players you may be targeting, resulting in Mike Napoli in the third round (even if I do intend to use him as my 1b, that’s early for a guy whose hip is about as healthy as my grandmothers’).
  • Another, equally simple lesson– while not without fault, projection systems such as CAIRO are a smart place to look for sleepers and breakout candidates. I will trust a projection system that utilizes a few years of data more than I will trust my gut when evaluating a player I don’t know much about.  A great or horrid 2012 does not necessarily mean a repeat in 2013.
  • In my real live draft prep I will use a few projection systems to compare and supplement my personal targets. The benefit of even a faulty projection system is that it projects all players using the same metric. Looking at 2 or 3 systems and finding players that are ranked highly across all of them could give you an indication of that player’s projected skill.
  • In the end this mock draft was a success not because I love the team I ended up with, but because I tested a strategy and identified areas to improve upon it. I won’t be drafting from an unedited projection ranking much in the future, and no one would ever recommend that be the end-all of your draft prep, but it does give a healthy baseline to test against for future draft practice.

I’ll discuss some of the available projection systems’ pros and cons in a later post. For my next mock draft post I’ll discuss a Yahoo! mock draft, and the problems that face drafting in low stakes situations with a bunch of strangers.

 

The Quality Start, pt II: Projecting

In part I of my n-part series on the Quality Start, I outlined why this stat should A) be understood to have no real baseball value and b) be understood as a fairly ideal fantasy stat. To sum, the QS is an ideal replacement for ‘wins’ in assessing fantasy pitcher contribution in any format, because it relies more on the skill of the pitcher than on the circumstances beyond his control, because it is easy to understand, and because it is projectable.

As a minority fantasy stat, the QS still does not appear in most easily attainable projection systems when you are doing your own player evaluation. But given a few bits of easily attainable information, it is much easier to predict with some accuracy how many quality starts a pitcher can be expected to have.

A simple cursory web search revealed a few different equations for predicting QS, and I tested two of these against 2012 data. Mr. Cheat Sheet and Cup of Fantasy Joe both outline pretty good forumlas, and you should read those links for insight into how the formulas work and what they suggest you learn from them. Comparing the formulas from each site against all SPs who had 10+ QS, I found the following:

Cup of Fantasy Joe and Mr. Cheat Sheet Quality Start formulas compared against actual 2012 data for pitchers with 10+ QS

Cup of Fantasy Joe and Mr. Cheat Sheet Quality Start formulas compared against actual 2012 data for pitchers with 10+ QS

From this data it’s fairly clear both CoFJ and Mr Cheat Sheet are close enough in projecting QS numbers against actual data that I would leave it to preference in choosing which formula to work with. I found Mr Cheat Sheet’s formula a little easier to wrap my math-inhibited mind around. It could be that against a larger pool of data, the discrepancies become clearer.

 

If you really like tables, here is a list of a few top, middle, and bottom pitchers with their 2012 actual QS, compared against what COFJ and MCS’s forumulas project using the same 2012 data:

A sample of top, middle, and bottom-tier pitcher Quality Starts compared with various formulas to project the same

A sample of top, middle, and bottom-tier pitcher Quality Starts compared with various formulas to project the same

 

Looking at this chart the discrepancies between the projection formulas appear a bit more extreme, and it becomes clear that in reality a pitcher will over- or under-perform his projection based on a variety of factors. Both COFJ and MCS weigh games started, total innings pitched, and ERA in determining QS, and while it is clear these numbers can get very close to accurate results, it is also clear that the margin of error is probably about +/- 3.5 QS or so. Again, I’m math inhibited so this is an eyeballed guess.

One thing that I feel this table DOES reveal is the degree to which a Win is less representative of a pitcher’s true talent than the QS. Again, fantasy stats are much poorer at evaluating true talent than advanced stats, but if we all agree that Ross Detwiler is worth a bit more than a 2012 Tommy Hanson or Ivan Nova, QS better reflects that.

 

You can view the full spreadsheet of 2012 quality start comparisons here.

Some speculative conclusions

A few quick, dirty conclusions based on this info:

  1. Even if you do uses Wins, the QS formula can give you a measure of talent for a pitcher to help ground a Wins projection more into reality than a simple guess.
  2. You could avoid projecting QS or any game-performance projection by focusing instead on IP and ERA. A 1, 2, or 3 starter who avoids injury and gets deep into games is a good bet to put up strong QS numbers.
  3. As with any ranking, the results of the formula you use can only be as good as the projection system you rely on. Projection systems are generally more reliable than individual gut-feel, but the general rule of thumb is that more meaningful data leads to better projections. Trust the numbers you get for an established pitcher with several years of service time more than the numbers for young guys.
  4. Especially in head-to-head leagues, QS is a useful SP evaluating stat. In roto leagues, a more ideal stat may be some WAR-based evaluation that is more context neutral. But in leagues where you have to win week to week, QS is less likely than Wins to punish good starters who pitch for crappy teams or reward mediocre starters on offensive powerhouse teams.

Regression to the Mean, with Chart

In the most recent episode of Fangraphs Audio, host Carson Cistulli speculated on the merits and possibilities of illustrating, graphically and with all emphasis on brevity, the very concept of “regression to the mean”. Below, in at least 50% graphical format, is a chart meant to convey this very idea.

The problem, as discussed, is that fans of Team Y or Player X will assume a year of poor performance is an outlier while an especially good year is representative of true talent level. What this chart shows is that, as with most things, reality is more complicated than we may speculate and a player can both be better than their worst year and worse than their best year, and that indeed such an assumption is healthy.

Michael "OK at Baseball" Saunders

A graphical representation of the concept of regression to the mean as illustrated using Seattle Mariners CF Michael Saunders 2013 ZiPS projections

To illustrate this concept I chose Seattle Mariners CF Michael Saunders, simply because

A) the comments of FanGraphs ZiPS projections of the Mariners featured an especially dimwitted response about Saunders’ 2012 performance compared against his 2013 projection

and

B) I can think of no things in god’s creation worth getting upset about less than the projected 2013 line of Seattle CF Michael Saunders, who as Szymborski noted could reasonably be expected to perform within a margin of error of +/- 10% of this line, based on, one would assume, circumstances.

also finally

C) compared to his performance over 4 years of data, Saunders’ 2013 reveals a trend of general performance improvement, close but not exactly the level of the previous year but certainly ahead of, say, the year before.

For these reasons, Saunders is  a good representation of ‘regression to the mean’ because this case shows that the mean doesn’t actually mean the average across X time, but instead the average of X time with the time weighted in such a way that does give more value to the performance of the previous year. And also because if you look at things stacked against  4 years of data suddenly you’re not comparing A to B, but instead A to B, C, and D, and having more to reference is hardly a point to complain about.

Winning the Unwinnable Pt II: My Mock Draft Rules for 2013

In pt I of my mock draft series for 2013 I outlined best practices for successful mock draft planning and thinking. I’ll be participating in multiple mock drafts this off season to put these ideas to the test as I plan for various leagues. In this short post I outline the rules and goals I’ll be using in all mock drafts

  1. pick one list/strategy and stick as close to it as possible
  2. don’t draft a pitcher before round 4
  3. don’t draft a relief pitcher before round 10
  4. in a 2 catcher mock draft, don’t draft the second catcher before round 20
  5. if possible, target 2 top 15 pitchers (unless this is impossible based on rule 2)
  6. in roto mock drafts, set the goal of finishing at least 3rd in all 5×5 categories except wins and save

 

If I add or change any of these rules, I will update this post accordingly.

Winning the Unwinnable: Mock Draft Best Practices

No time in a fantasy sports season is more exciting than the weeks/months leading up to a league draft. Draft prep allows every manager to be a winner in his or her own mind. Questions about preferred draft pick are pondered (is it better to draft in the middle or at the turn this year?). Lists of sleepers are compiled. The top 10-50 players are ranked, reranked, and argued about passionately. Much time is spent considering the value of positional scarcity.

In theory the mock draft is a place for managers to test various strategies, lists, and draft positions in an effort to prepare for the real thing. In practice, at least anecdotally, it seems to this author that mock drafts are mostly for fun, or for quick-fading bragging rights, or to pass the time building enthusiasm during the otherwise dull preseason. We take part in mock drafts because we enjoy drafting. The draft is one of the only parts of the fantasy sports season where all managers play the same game together at the same time, before splitting up to essentially play solitare with the occasional trade or smack talk serving as the only meaningful exception. Where fantasy sports are individual activities, drafting is a group game that everyone wins purely by participating.

Mock drafting, then, provides the excitement and energy of a real draft sans consequence. As “practice”, mock drafting can be invaluable by virtue of familiarizing the owner with the pace and interface of whatever draft tool is used. And this is about as far as most managers go in deriving value from a mock. All the blog posts and message board threads comparing “who won a mock draft” are the height of ephemeral intellectual masturbation, focusing on who got which player at which position rather than attempting to understand how the draft itself worked and, more importantly, how the owner’s draft strategy played out.

If you want to mock draft for the hell of it, by all means do so. It’s a blast. But if you want to learn from your mock draft results, and especially if you intend to write about your mock draft, I recommend some best practices presented below for your approval

  1. Test your strategy- The ostensible purpose of a mock draft is to prep for the real thing, and this requires forethought. Going into a mock draft with no predefined strategy is only barely more useful than reviewing lists of Average Draft Position or thinking about your “dream team”. Have a list of players ranked or in tiers, or identify that you are going to target various positions in each round, or plan upfront that you will take “best available player”
  2. Stick to the plan- Mock drafts have no consequences. As such, if you go into a draft with a plan only to abandon that plan at the first sign of failure, you are not actually testing your strategy. If I plan on not drafting a starting pitcher until round 6, but there’s Kershaw sitting there in round 3 and he’s the best available player, I’m abandoning my plan if I take him. The point of a mock draft is to test  your overall strategy, not to win the mock draft.
  3. Test your goals- Above my strategy for a draft, I have goals for the season. Obviously the primary goal is to win, but a secondary goal could be to finish in the top 3 in home runs and strikeouts or to have a promising young core in a dynasty league or stock up on depth for future trades. Think about your goals going into the draft as  you test your strategy, and think about how your draft technique prepares you to meet these goals. The goals will define the strategy– if I want to chase homeruns rather than steals that defines who “best available player” is to me, given a choice between Michael Bourn and Mike Napoli.
  4. Take risks- The mock draft is a safe place. If you truly believe Verlander is a first round pick, take him in the first round regardless of your draft position (yes, even if you’re pick no. 1). Be bold. Be decisive. Be stupid. Try something you’d never  do if the results were permanent. Pay for saves, build an injury prone core, ignore upside for safety. Try the stuff that annoys you about other managers just to see how it impacts the team you end up with.
  5. Think about the results- When looking at the results of the draft, don’t look only at your team and don’t think about whether you won or lost or just did OK; focusing on your individual outcome rather than your process or the group outcome will not teach you anything useful. Mock Draft Central lets you rank each team and each pick of any mock draft– take the time to do this. You may identify flaws in your strategy and holes in your game. If your goal was to finish with 250+ home runs, figure out what round you feel like you met that goal and compare it to other players who came in later rounds. Perhaps the 20 home runs you got in round 5 could be split between rounds 13 and 20, and round 5 could buy you a serious pitching upgrade. Maybe someone you’ve got as a sleeper is going 3 rounds earlier than planned and you’re forced to reevaluate him.
  6. Try again- Take what you learned from this draft and apply it to another mock. Refine your strategy, adjust your rankings, and test your goals again. Every draft is different because every manager is different. Test your strategy from a different draft position, or try the same draft position with a radically different strategy to see what happens. If you usually use Yahoo, try ESPN or MDC and see how the results change.

Over the course of the preseason I will be applying these rules to a few different mock drafts to try and impart some general lessons for drafting. View the draft strategy or mock draft categories for more info on this topic.

What We Talk About When We Talk About Games, Pt. 1: Fantasy Baseball

I first encountered fantasy baseball just a few years ago, in the 2011 season. I had withdrawn from paying any attention at all to the sport of baseball during my high school and college years, only to rediscover it after moving to Philadelphia in 2006. After deciding focusing April through October watching or listening to or reading about baseball daily was not giving enough of my time, I joined my first fantasy league. It was a 10 team head to head Yahoo league, my brother was the commissioner, and he set up the league to score on every imaginable category. I did only cursory draft prep– enough research to determine I wasn’t going to draft a pitcher until round 7 consequences be damned (and I drafted Ubaldo Jimenez which if you recall 2011 was not the best idea). I won the season with the best record only to be shut out in the post season by my dad who autodrafted and then did not change his roster more than twice the whole season.

In 2012 I upped to 4 leagues, including taking on an abandoned team in a deep dynasty league that plays by the strangest rules I have thus-far encountered. In 2013 I expect to join at least one new dynasty league if not more. Suffice it to say I am hooked.

If one were to ask me why I play Fantasy Baseball, my answer would be that I enjoy it. This is the simplest and purest answer one should give for any hobby, I do believe, and in itself should be sufficient as long as the thing one enjoys isn’t causing any harm to one’s self or others.

As for WHY I enjoy it, I have found that the satisfaction I get out of playing fantasy baseball is only tangentially related to the sport of baseball itself. Whereas some seem to play fantasy sports based first on love and knowledge of the sport and a desire to experience it more fully, I find this reason wholly unsatisfactory. Certainly I know far more about prospects, depth charts, stats, and sabermetrics after 2 seasons of fantasy baseball than I ever did in the 4 previous seasons of watching 100+ Phillies games a year. But while knowing baseball is helpful for playing fantasy baseball, it isn’t sufficient.

I posit that any skill required to play fantasy baseball comes more from focusing on the “game” part rather than the “sport” part– that is, focusing on “fantasy” instead of “baseball”. Fantasy as in genre fiction, as in dungeons and dragons, as in RPGs, as in tabletop strategy games. Fantasy as in the sort of thing it is entirely unlikely Ken Burns will ever document. Fantasy as in the sort of thing jocks stereotypically hate.

Knowing baseball, the whole world of baseball inside and out, and above this being interested by baseball is central to one’s enjoyment of playing in a fantasy league. But knowing how to play games, how to understand complex sets of rules and identify strategies that allow you to use those rules to your advantage, how to play with and against other people toward a common goal of mutual enjoyment up to and until the point where a victor must be declared, how to find fun in a seemingly-endless game where the opponents are constantly changing and luck is at least as important as skill; this is what makes fantasy baseball fun.

If you have played fantasy baseball for any amount of time you have certainly encountered the managers who eagerly sign up to play only to ignore or half-ass the draft, forget to set a line up, disappear for 3 months only appearing to complain, and otherwise contribute nothing to the game. Sometimes these people even win a league or at least beat you. Certainly this type of player takes away from the enjoyment of playing, but they also serve to prove that winning is not the ultimate reason to play. Winning could be a result of sheer luck. Enjoying requires effort.

In this specific way– the relationship of luck to winning and effort to enjoyment– playing fantasy baseball is not unlike playing REAL baseball, or any sport. The fun and fulfillment in a sport or game comes from challenging ones’ self, improving ones’ self. Games and sports are tools for self-fulfillment, giving purpose to recreation. In this way, though, fantasy baseball is decidedly not like WATCHING the sport. Being a spectator is extremely enjoyable in its own way and can be equally consuming and defining, but as as spectator the only true benefit to me is in identifying with a community. It’s like being in a club that requires only one pay dues to join. Being a fan is not the same as being a participant.

Most of us will not ever play baseball at any competitive level, and definitely not work in or near a baseball front office. The skills required to work in the world of real baseball are almost certainly divorced from the skills required to succeed at fantasy sports, in the same way that the skills required to slay a dragon are divorced from the skills required to enjoy D&D.

It is perhaps not a coincidence that my exposure to fantasy baseball and my exposure to tabletop strategy games happened at about the same time. I would be quick to compare fantasy sports to games like Agricola, Settlers of Catan, and Ticket to Ride. I’ve only played D&D once, although I’ve played more than a few video game RPGs. The thought behind designing a good game engine, and the strategies various players take to succeed at and enjoy these types of games, are I believe entirely similar to fantasy sports.

I created this blog as an outlet for thoughts such as this. I’ve spent copious hours researching, preparing, and thinking about my fantasy baseball leagues and teams. I’ve encountered a ton of strategy, analysis, and thought about how to improve one’s team or prepare for a draft. What I have encountered very little of is theory. The focus of most thought tends to be on diving deeper into the research behind “baseball” while the “fantasy” part is often treated as secondary. Part of my goal for this blog, or at least the fantasy baseball-related posts, is to turn greater attention to the fantasy parts; the game parts; the ideas at play.

I approach maybe too much of life as if it were a strategy game– attempting to understand the engine, fully research the rules, and determine how to succeed within the confines of the established universe. Games provide a framework to achieve this greater understanding of the world around us, and more complicated games allow for more opportunities to learn. I have yet to encounter a game more nuanced, difficult, or intensive than fantasy baseball. Playing has led me to deeper understandings of statistics, economics, group dynamics, goal setting, and sportsmanship among other things. When I write on my future resumes that I am adept at Microsoft Excel, I will have fantasy baseball to thank.

As a game, I find fantasy baseball extremely fulfilling. But only when I put in the effort.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.